Over the last week there have been animated debates at MyDD, DailyKos and elsewhere about whether Democrats should boycott "red" companies and steer their spending to "blue" ones. The claim comes from data, helpfully organized at Choose the Blue, Project Blue Christmas and Buy Blue, that some companies tend to donate to Democrats and others to Republicans. (If you'd like to do your own investigating, go to the Federal Election Commission for raw data and reports or to the Center for Responsive Politics for the same FEC data helpfully organized.)
Much of the debate is motivated by the finding that most corporate campaign giving is to Republicans. And we should be surprised?
I remain to be convinced, however, that boycotts of "red" companies are an effective or wise response. Firms and interest groups donate in order to help friendly candidates get elected, and to win and maintain access to the policymaking process once they're in office. It seems to me that the Democrats shouldn't bend over backward to win the donations of oil companies, for example. Corporate giving is a direct function of the issue positions of candidates of officeholders, so we cannot have discussion about how to turn the red into the blue without also talking about the issues to which these donors respond.
Furthermore, even a wildly successful boycott of, say, Russell Stovers, Outback Steakhouse and Coors will affect campaign finance only at the margins. The only way to affect the balance of giving in a meaningful way, short of more substantial campaign finance reform, is to take back Congress. Simple as that. Yes, firms want to elect like-minded candidates, but even more than that they value access. Given a choice -- say, in an open seat race -- they will give more to the Republican. But if Democrats are in power, they'll give to Dems.
The clearest evidence of this is to compare business PAC donations in the elections cycles before and after the '94 GOP victory. Here, I took '92 and '94, when Dems were in the majority, and compared '96 and '98, when the GOP was. (Even though '94 was the GOP's big year, in terms of donations it looked very much like '92. Anyway, if anything including it makes demonstrating my point even harder.) The numbers show the percentage of business PAC donations give to each kind of candidate (numbers rounded):
Before After
D Incumbent 43% 26%
R Incumbent 34 55
D Challenger 2 0
R Challenger 6 5
D Open Seat 4 4
R Open Seat 12 10
As you can see, Dems got about half the corporate PAC donations when they were in the majority, but less than a third in the minority. Moreover, when incumbency is no longer an issue with open seats, the difference is even more pronounced between the two parties and is consistent across the two periods.
So, you really want corporate PACs to give more money to Democratic candidates? Then get those candidates elected. But if it's corporate giving you really want, be careful what you wish for.
That said, if you are still hell-bent on a boycott, here are three simple criteria for an effective one:
- There must be an alternative. To credibly claim that you will boycott a product or service, a consumer must be able to say either that they can get an equivalent from a firm more compatible with your views, or that you are willing to forego that product or service altogether.
- The firm must have a small enough margin that it will feel the pressure. Grocery stores, for instance, have very low margins and so are susceptible to boycotts more than other firms (conditional on #1).
- Boycotters must be vocal. It is not enough for the firm to lose customers, it must know why it is losing customers. The messages must be clear, focused, and directly tied to consumer behavior.
It should also be said that where there is a boycott of red companies, there could be a boycott of blue ones. These same sites are being promoted in the red latititudes of the blogosphere as a way to help "their" companies, too. What's good for the goose ...
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Posted by: qwer | November 16, 2006 at 05:04 PM