Well, the latest grades are in, and they don't look good.
Michael O'Hanlon of Brookings today has released another update on the Iraq situation. While there are small improvements in a few areas, on the whole the situation is bleak. As anyone following the news knows, insurgency is way up over the last year. Reports early in the week confirmed what everyone outside the White House knew already, that we haven't had enough troops to get the job done and we haven't trained enough Iraqi troops to protect the 9000 polling places. And then there is the high unemployment, the glacial improvements in public services, and the anemic sales of oil to pay for the reconstruction.
Worse for the democratization, the Brookings report also says that confidence among Iraqis in the Alawi government has plumeted as has the proportion who want the U.S. to stay, and there is a small decline in the number of people who say they will vote and who believe that the country is better off after the fall of Saddam.
I certainly hope that the election comes off peacefully and that there is broad enough participation that it can provide legitimacy to the next regime. It looks increasingly likely, however, that it will not.
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